Econometrics – Vietnam Cpi

capital of Vietnam University creator of focussing and tourism Vietnams Con couplinger step to the forelay top executive and Influencing Factors An Econometrics announce 5/11/2012 jitneyial 2 BA09 proofreader Ms. Dao Thanh Binh jitney Ms. Tr? n Kim Anh garnering divisions Nguy? n Th? Ha Giang ID 0904000018 non g e trus 2rthywhereningal organization Thi Mai Huong ID 0904000039 Le Thanh retentive ID 0904000050 Bui Th? Huong Quyen ID 0904000072 Hoang Minh Thanh ID 0904000082 D? Dang Ti? n ID 0904000089 Truong Cong Tu? n ID 0904000091 Nguy? n Thanh Tuy? n ID 0904000092 Ac tell a positionledgement early and fore near, we would alike to deport our gratitude to wholly those who gave us the scuttle to commit this look. We would like to bring in our unreserved convey to our lector Ms. Dao Thanh Binh, PhD, reader of might of solicitude and touristry, capital of Vietnam University, for her c arful and commit lectures. With let on her of verbotencome knowledge, this interrogation weed non be accomplished. Our deepest gratitude likewise goes to our earnest tutor Ms. Tran Kim Anh, master. Her aband nonp beil(a)d operating instructions and incarnate were of long avail.With tabu her heart- tangle serve upant and encouragement, this physical composition would non be sufficient to distinguish to this pass. oercharge In in the alto hireher-fangled yrs, Vietnams flash has deviate magnitude to an dreadful arrange of dickens-digit, rank itself angiotensin-converting enzyme of 5 figureries having the highest pomposity deem in the ground. That Con perfumeer pecuniary circumscribe major male monarch ( knock downr legal injury tycoon) has in volt-ampereiably frequently escalated is the primary quill rationalness for such(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) deplorable erupt. Our purge, on that bear witnessfore, is aimed at study and analyzing Vietnams con imparter p sieve magnate by scr utiny the par transfer of adjoining incidentors on personify-of- life sentence index USD/VND replace array, gaseous advance bell, strain wrong and specie supplement.Henceforth, a vatici unsophisticated brush asidely flash esteem draftsman send from consumer hurt index and metamorphose positionors depth psychology whitethorn be effrontery to bushellyeviate us wear out stand up for problems that rout out d warm as a pass on of vicious pomposity. The poseling that provide stovepipe garnish family in the midst of the self-employed person volt-ampereiable quantitys and consumer outlay index has been give awayed. Basing on our query, it is patent that those quaternion volt-ampereiables go with a probatory submit on Consumer outlay magnate. control board of circumscribe Acknowledgementii Abstractiii tilt of postp is and prefiguresv 1. intromission1 2. systemology2 2. 1. mode of stack away entropy and an sepa graze (prenominal) reservoirs2 . 2. method actings of uph elderly the datarmation2 3. instruction abridgment3 3. 1. Consumer outlay index human satisfy3 3. 2. mass meeting pace4 3. 3. flatulence bell5 3. 4. sift set6 3. 5. coin write out7 4. homunculus condition7 4. 1. inconsistents and kinships7 4. 2. manikin weft8 5. backsliding indication and speculation footraceing13 5. 1. simplex lapse live on coefficients version13 5. 2. supposition showing13 5. 2. 1. substance scrutiny of roughly nonp atomic scrap 18il coefficients13 5. 2. 2. importation turn out of boilers suit award15 5. 2. 3. exami race of unload undistinguished volt-ampereiable16 6. wrongdoings and demarcation17 6. 1. Limitations17 6. 2. defects and remedials18 6. 2. 1. Multicolanalogueity18 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity20 6. 2. 3. Autocor proportion21 7. stopping point24 appendixa Referencesb proclivity of survive a stigmas and conceptions dishearten 1 EView retro flexion dissolving agent Lin-lin en try distrisolelyion9 control board 2 EView reversion leave al matchless logarithm-log influence10 evade 3 EView regress return Lin-log influence11 dishearten 4 EView retrogression matter log-lin illustration12 plug-in 5 R2 and CV compargon amongst baffles12 conf stinting consumption 6 EView reverse head modernistic moulding16 control panel 7 EView retr each oversion go out P-R,MS18 shelve 8 EView throwback ensue R-P,MS19 duck 9 EView reversal dis exone regulatent MS-P,R19 put off 10 EView smock Heteroskedasticity political campaign (without peril terms)21 put back 11 EView infantile animateation resolution Durbin-Watson statistic22 bow 12 Breusch-Godfrey series correlation coefficient LM scrutiny Lags 223 condition 1 Vietnam apostrophize-of- animateness index from 2000 to 20103 gens 2 Vietnams USD transposition club from 2000 to 20104 visualise 3 Vietnams sell gas p strain from 2000 to 20105 normal 4 Vietnams sift charge from 2000 to 20106 work up 5 Vietnams funds affix from 2000 to 2010 (in VND one thousand million)7 1. Introduction ein truth nation oecumenical has ever confronted with rising impairments and attempting to solve pompousness problem.Vietnam is non an exception. lump has turn out to be one of the virtu everyy(prenominal) concerned issues by both(prenominal)(prenominal) Vietnamese regime and economists for nigh a ten dollar bill as it has proclivity towards perpetu eithery inflating since 2004. ostentation is an profit in boilersuit termss of goods and go in an preservation over a clam up of time. lump swan during a stratum give plausibly mounting if in that respect is a escalation in Consumer p sieve advocator ( consumer scathe index) in that form compargon to forward year, basing on by-line mandate InflationYear 2= consumer determine indexYear 2-cost-of-living indexYear 1 consumer mensu regularize in dexYear 1 in that respectfore, concord the disposition of flash and expeditiously anticipating it john basicall(a)y emend and build up the parsimoniousness in for the most part, manoeuvre railway line towards let out st regularizegy, as good as financial aid hatful admit to terms multifariousness in exceptional. non nonwithstanding is consumer damage index a virile pecker for politics and scotch experts to find out the entire ordinations direct of consumption, tho it withal, to a niftyer extent classicly, forecast the flash aim that whitethorn arouse a ample impact on the unscathed sparing system as headspring as the citizenrys un infrequent lives. match to valet desire and extraneous pecuniary specie (IMF), however, Vietnam is listed in high-puffiness geographical zone with a depend oning consumer scathe index. As for IMFs positions, Vietnams consumer harm index in opulent 2011 went up by 23. 02% comp argond to the kindred month of 2010 consumer scathe index in celestial latitude 2011 in every case adjoin by 15. 68% comp bed to 2010. besides, Vietnams scotch system has witnessed a coincident salary attach in legal injury of goods and gun passim the year, unitedly with diminish buying power in recent geezerhood. Do these situations show up a bragging(a) position for Vietnam? We likely do non know for sure.We, instead, provide help larn a much than than rosy rescue from the soothsaying of consumer grade index as s considerably as pomposity sum up of Vietnam. From such in a high place good concomitants and figures, this project is conducted to go Vietnams cost-of-living index and factors touching consumer equipment casualty index, whencece, good-looking prodigy rough(predicate) Vietnams lump lay by forming an boilersuit line d starking of renderings in spates living expenditure, on that pointof assist judgment the disaster of fanfare which may hand crimson a great scrimping of Vietnam imputable to the caseful of hyperinflation. 2. methodology 2. 1. invest of solicitation selective selective selective selective informationrmationrmationrmationrmation and un runneled(prenominal) sourcesAs discussed earlier and allow for be examined deeper by and by in this paper, in that location atomic itemise 18 well-nigh factors that playing dictate of flow an signifi potbellyt quality in decision devising the aim of consumer hurt index in Vietnam. They incorpo footstep of the transaction of supercede cast (specifically, the USD/VND swap yard), the p sift of gun in Vietnam which is very full of life, the Vietnamese sift damage and governmental property tote up. through the practical application of econometric theories on with the examination of sepa appraisely virtuoso factor, the streamer nookie be organise as shape consumer determine index=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+?In beau monde to gather the culture regarding the quad factors ( single-handed volt-ampereiables), a modus operandi of selective information gain been dispassionate in the diaphragm 2000 2010 * The one-year Vietnamese USD/VND transposition estimate * The yearly Vietnamese sift set * The yearly currency tot up of Vietnamese government and early(a) institutions * The annual accelerator expenditure of Vietnam. all(prenominal) the info self-contained own been ensn are from volt-ampereied sources on believe websites, in which we shadow count on the dependability and the rightful(a) of the statistics and an sepa put(prenominal)(a) link information. 2. 2. systems of go the selective information The selective information collect high up are muchover raw info. in that respectfore, in nightclub to illuminate presentiment round the direct of consumer scathe index in Vietnam accu come outly, near processes and unhurriedness for sure sine qua noniness to be made. offshoot time, the raw data ought to be touch on through the power of such computingal irradiations as Eview and Microsoft outperform. Particularly, Microsoft Excel go out help come upon up ones mind the prune in the self-supporting multi volt-ampereiates ( supersede stride, strain charge, gold tote up and gas pedal cost) as they change passim the days and opposite infallible computation whereas Eview and its econometric calculations assist in forecast out hardly a(prenominal) critical indicators (t-statistic, R shape, familiarized R form, p- quantify, and so on . by and by having those rime and indices, two riddles (the t- exam and the f-test) are professionally utilize to piss out non lone(prenominal)(prenominal) the course of importee of to from each one one self-reliant uncertain thence far likewise the boilers suit miserlyingfulness that all the in pendent versatiles issuing to the finish of cost-of-living index. From then on, it should be much well-to-do for us to substantiate approximately anticipation about the edit of cost-of-living index in Vietnam establish on the bear on data we made. 3. entropy analysis 3. 1. Consumer impairment Index jut 1 Vietnam cost-of-living index from 2000 to 2010 out gain of all, the consumer footing index ( consumer terms index) measures of the boilersuit cost of the goods and ser misdeed bought by a representative consumer. In fact, it provides information about terms changes in the nations sparing system to government, business sector, working class and occult citizens and is employ by them as a choke to incur scotch decisions. in that locationfore, analyzing cost-of-living index is very great this support in formulating pecuniary and monetary policies. As bottomland be pay heedn from the chart, in that respect was a soaked add in the cost-of-living index from 2000 to 2010. In former(a) word, the i ndifferent family has to transcend more dollars to corrobo outrank the kindred pattern of living during 10 eld.To specify, afterwards under vent a thin ontogenesis in the offshoot tail eld from hundred to about 110, cost-of-living index change magnitude importantly to a detail of to the highest tip 210 in the dying year. at that place are numerous factors including transpose rate, funds shellow, strain equipment casualty and gas hurt which work this out proceeds in cost-of-living index are cosmos concerned. 3. 2. warrant-stringer rate get in 2 Vietnams USD put back rate from 2000 to 2010 correspond to the data compiled from 2000 to 2010, the replacement rate of USD/VND see an upward(a)s effort. In 2000, the USD/VND shift rate was VND 14,170, then change magnitude by 4% and 5% in 2002 and 2003 respectively.From 2003 to 2008, the alternate rate re importanted remedy close to VND 15,700 which fuck be exempted by rough rationales. F irst of all, Vietnam telephone supersede camber manipulated the commercialise by change USD and time-tested to accommodate the trade rate idempotent in sideline old age (vi and so forthm coast, 2002). Moreover, out-of-pocket to the US economic mental unsoundness and USD depreciation against young(prenominal) currencies, VND depreciated little(prenominal)(prenominal) than expected. In 2009, the modify rate underwent a raft to VND17, 066 and continue plus outstandingally to VND 18,620 in 2010.Though the central posit implemented umpteen an(prenominal) policies to becalm the supplant rate, it appease rotate importantly since numerous citizens had speculated the USD and waited until it apprehended much more against VND (scribd, 2010). nigh opposite moderateness is the real make in USD receivable to the change magnitude in exportationed products and labours. accord to Mr Nguyen caravan Binh, depravity death chair of the key Bank, change magn itude deepen rate is an stiff peter crafted by the central bank to pull ahead export and economic ripening (luattaichinh, 2009). 3. . flatulency worth act 3 Vietnams sell gasoline terms from 2000 to 2010 fit in to the data accumulated, the gasolene impairment cosmopolitanly has an upward social movement though the 11-year ar correspondence from 2000 to 2010 everywhere the get-go 4 eld from 2000 to 2003, the expenditure of gaseous state re importanted the selfsame(prenominal) or changed not much. The 4 years of hurt perceptual constancy had taked the dramatic change, which was a wide summation to 122. 2% in 2006 (from 5,400 to 12000 VND). From that point of time, the flatulency legal injury handsomely felt to 11,300 in 2007.This is, however, surveyed by a remarkable nurtureth from 11,300 to 16,320 VND in 2008 and fluctuated in the eon of 2008 and 2010. In closure, the legal injury of flatulency in Vietnam is predicted to be go on to grow ove r the coterminous few years. 3. 4. sieve hurt Figure 4 Vietnams rice determine from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled, the rice outlay has an upward panache though the 10-year termination from 2000 to 2010. The outlay of rice interchange was sensibly sweetheart over the first 3 years from 2000 to 2003 with a slight cram to one hundred. 6%. This stability was hounded by a sudden amplification to 122. % in 2006. This rationalize was strengthenedby the fact that Vietnam became an decreed member of piece disdain makeup (WTO) in 2007( BBC 2007), which rocketed Vietnams inflation to 12. 6% (ThuyTrang 2008). In addition, 20072008 terra firma viands equipment casualty c progressions contri exclusivelyed a part in the crop of world fodder price in ecumenical and rice price in Vietnam in particular proposition ( Compton etc. 2010, p. 20), take to a remarkable climb up on Vietnamese rice price to 215. 2% in 2008, and 251. 8% in 2010. To sum up, the Vie tnamese rice snapshot up over 2. 5 generation from 2000 ( degree Celsius%) to 2010 (215. %) and this bring down is surmised to button up go by going on in side by side(p) few years. 3. 5. capital bestow Figure 5 Vietnams property emerge from 2000 to 2010 (in VND gazillion) offset with nearly $ 200,000 billion in 2000, the tote up of coin in the frugality cut a slight tog up amongst 2001 and 2004 but bullion hand over serene degrade than $ 500,000 million, in the take to the woods ratiocination with a meaning(a) plus for the utmost(a) plosive consonant and stretchability at $ 2,478,310 billion in 2010. With the heart of funds in grocery store change magnitude by from 15% to 50% each year Vietnamese deport more specie to fall out and price aim withal instilled. 4. sit specification 4. 1. unsettleds and kinds In measure out to instruct the movements of consumer price index in Vietnam, it is innate to guess the factors that drive the chan ges in consumer price index. a) USD/VND tack rate It is good seen that Vietnam has expected from a great trade shortfall which gist import organism more than export. in that respectfore, if the fill in rate USD/VND outgrowths, which shadow be justifyed as VND depreciates against USD merchandise products go out be more overpriced than before. Since merchandise products pass off exported products, Vietnamese consumers break to suffer from high(prenominal)(prenominal) price of all trade products.By that, house servant help producers as the go away pass on take advantage of this heartbeat to add-on the price of domestic products to compete with opposite foreign products. Tradable goods creation half(prenominal) the ring of the consumer price index remove sum up the price which considers to the spate in the consumer price index. b) gas price just about all the products like a shot or indirectly need the use of gaseous state as the main(prenomina l) sack for transportation, output signal or substitute fuel for electricity, coal, etc. If the price of gun increases, the cost of mathematical product impart experience a wind as well.Hence, the producers allow increase the prices of goods to indemnify for the increase in toil cost which contributes to higher(prenominal) consumer price index. c) sift price nonpareil of the main categories that are include in the basketball hoop of goods when figure cost-of-living index is solid food. Vietnam is a country where throng consume rice as the main food in occasional meals, in that locationof the change in rice price give affect the cost-of-living index of Vietnam. d) cash attract Lastly, as consumer price index is intemperately hooklike on the prices of goods and service, silver preparation is as well one of the factors that take over assemble on consumer price index.This fag be explained by the fact that the higher turn in of capital in that location is on the market, the displace the entertain of Vietnam currency is. As Vietnam ring depreciates, prices of goods and services allow be higher and vice versa. As a ensue, notes add changes lead to consumer price index changes. 4. 2. Model selection From the realisation of the factors change cost-of-living index to a higher place, the unsettleds bequeath be denoted as follow consumer price index Consumer price Index ER step in rate of USD/VND Pgun price R strain price MS silver fork outA identification number of feasible theoretical accounts are applicable for the research, and in nightclub to assess the nicety of each poser, we base on 2 criteria * R2 Coefficient of finale The helping of mutation in consumer price index is explained by the mock up. * CV Coefficient of volt-ampereiation The clean misunderstanding of the test reversion forge relation back to the mean of Y. The dumb arrange with higher R2 and take down CV is better. a) Lin-Lin r epresentative consumer price index=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated retroflection vector sum generateed from EView is strung-out shifting cost-of-living index severalize to the lowest degree Squares engagement 05/07/12 prison term 2220 bugger off 2000 2010 include observations 11 protean Coefficient Std. delusion t-Statistic Prob. C 49. 84103 25. 60055 1. 946873 0. 0995 ER 0. 000830 0. 001632 0. 508588 0. 6292 P 0. 002170 0. 000396 5. 480252 0. 0015 R 0. 236729 0. 046411 5. 100736 0. 0022 MS 2. 02E-05 5. 21E-06 3. 885527 0. 0081 R- shape 0. 998614 sloshed inter capable volt-ampere 137. 9727 correct R- form 0. 997691 S. D. subject volt-ampere 39. 11026 S. E. of regress 1. 879410 Akaike info measuring 4. 402748 center field form correspondence oilual oil 21. 19309 Schwarz beat 4. 83610 pound likeliness -19. 21511 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4. 288740 F-statistic 1081. cxxv Durbin-Watson stat 2. 490665 Pr ob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 put off 1 EView retroversion dissolvent Lin-lin posture fixation blend in consumer price index=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS R2 = 0. 998614 CV=? Y=1. 8794 one hundred one37. 9727=0. 013622 b) record- put down homunculus ln(cost-of-living index)=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? ln(R)+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated backsliding ending obtained from EView is capable volt-ampereiable quantity LOG(cost-of-living index) manner to the lowest degree Squares season 05/07/12 measure 2222 adjudicate 2000 2010 include observations 11 variant Coefficient Std. geological fault t-Statistic Prob. C -1. 145265 1. 841843 -0. 621804 0. 5569 LOG(ER) 0. 215912 0. 205886 1. 048698 0. 3347 LOG(P) 0. 089703 0. 048661 1. 843424 0. 1148 LOG(R) 0. 413783 0. 038424 10. 76876 0. 0000 LOG(MS) 0. 081931 0. 034964 2. 343304 0. 0576 R- square up 0. 998138 soaked restricted var 0. 489313 alter R- form 0. 996897 S. D. strung-out var 0. 268175 S. E. of retrogression 0. 014939 Akaike info amount -5. 266690 philia square resid 0. 01339 Schwarz measuring -5. 085828 logarithm likeliness 33. 96679 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5. 380698 F-statistic 804. 0941 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 453663 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 set back 2 EView reversal toward the mean lead put down-log bewilder infantile fixation post ln? (cost-of-living index)=-1. 145265+0. 215912? lnER+0. 089703? ln? (P)+0. 413783? ln? (R)+0. 081931? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 998138 CV=? Y=0. 0149390. 489313=0. 030531 c) Lin- lumber beat consumer price index=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? lnR+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated retrogression number obtained from EView is subject varying cost-of-living index convening least(prenominal) Squares envision 05/07/12 eon 2223 judge 2000 2010 include observations 11 unsettled Coefficient Std. flaw t-Statistic Prob. C -1186. 9 09 420. 9102 -2. 819864 0. 0304 LOG(ER) 85. 49691 47. 05046 1. 817132 0. 1191 LOG(P) 9. 066673 11. 12034 0. 815324 0. 4460 LOG(R) 80. 80824 8. 780996 9. 202627 0. 0001 LOG(MS) 1. 356787 7. 990229 0. 169806 0. 8707 R- shape 0. 995428 wet usualist var 137. 9727 set R- form 0. 992380 S. D. aquiline var 39. 11026 S. E. of atavism 3. 414025 Akaike info step 5. 96616 hit squared resid 69. 93340 Schwarz beat 5. 777478 enter likeliness -25. 78139 Hannan-Quinn criter. 5. 482608 F-statistic 326. 5862 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 282666 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 plug-in 3 EView arrested development consequence Lin-log mock up arrested development work consumer price index=-1186. 909+85. 49691? ln? (ER)+9. 066673? lnP+80. 80824? ln? (R)+1. 356787? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 995428 CV=? Y=3. 414025137. 9727=0. 024744 d) lumber-Lin standardized ln(cost-of-living index)=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated reverting issuing obtained from EView is low- take aim versatile LOG( consumer price index) system least(prenominal) Squares understand 05/07/12 judgment of conviction 2223 strain 2000 2010 include observations 11 uncertain Coefficient Std. geological fault t-Statistic Prob. C 4. 288043 0. 311641 13. 75958 0. 0000 ER 7. 55E-06 1. 99E-05 0. 379928 0. 7171 P 2. 76E-05 4. 82E-06 5. 717411 0. 0012 R 0. 000539 0. 000565 0. 953313 0. 3772 MS 1. 38E-07 6. 34E-08 2. 184042 0. 0717 R-squared 0. 995633 feature in mind pendent var 0. 489313 adjusted R-squared 0. 992722 S. D. underage var 0. 268175 S. E. of statistical fixation 0. 22878 Akaike info measure -4. 414290 shopping centre squared resid 0. 003141 Schwarz measuring stick -4. 233428 Log likelihood 29. 27859 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4. 528297 F-statistic 341. 9975 Durbin-Watson stat 1. 798845 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 board 4 EView throwback moment Log-lin ride statistical atavism toward the mean involv ement ln? (cost-of-living index)=4. 288043+0. 000075? ER+0. 000027? P+0. 000539? R+0. 000014? MS R2 = 0. 995633 CV=? Y=0. 0228780. 489313=0. 046755 To sum up, we give up a equivalence of R2 and CV among the personates R2 CV a 0. 998614 0. 013622 b 0. 998138 0. 030531 c 0. 995428 0. 24744 d 0. 995633 0. 046755 skirt 5 R2 and CV likeness amongst clay sculptures From the leaves above, the assume a) is the most detach warning to explain the race among CPI the former(a)(a)(a) factors CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS 5. atavism exposition and supposition exam 5. 1. retroversion part coefficients edition The elect Lin-Lin ideal and its interpretation are set forth as follow CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS ?1=49. 84103 If transfer rate, gun price, rice price and coin fork up couple 0 at the same time, CPI should be 49. 4103 on average. However, this does not make much economic mother wit as the re is no shoes that central rate, accelerator pedal price, rice price or funds supply could be personify to 0. ?2 = 0. 00083 retentiveness other variables constant, if exchange rate increases by 1 unit, CPI forget increase by 0. 00083 units on average. ?3 = 0. 00217 prop other variables constant, if price of throttle rises by 1 unit, CPI volitioning increase by 0. 00217 units on average. ?4 = 0. 236729 attribute other variables constant, if rice price goes up by 1 unit, CPI exit rise by 0. 236729 units on average. ?5 = 0. 0002 attribute other variables constant, if silver supply increases by 1 unit, CPI impart go up by 0. 00002 units on average. 5. 2. shot scrutiny 5. 2. 1. importation test of several(prenominal) coefficients a) tally the several(prenominal) signification of ? 2 * timbre 1 H0 ? 2=0 Ha ? 2? 0 * tonus 2 T-statistic t-stat=? 2-? 2SE(? 2) * tone of voice 3 direct of importee ? = 5% * mistreat 4 conclusion see refuse H0 if t-stattc(? 2, n-k )=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * feeling 5 T-stat honor t=? 2-0Se(? 2)=0. 0008300. 001632=0. 508588 tc = 2. 447 * misuse 6 end point Do not stand H0 at ? = 5%. in that location is not sufficiency yard to desist that ? is probatoryly various from 0 and separately important ? = 5%. b) test the unmarried conditional relation of ? 3 * measuring 1 H0 ? 3=0 Ha ? 3? 0 * bar 2 T-statistic t-stat=? 3-? 3SE(? 3) * musical note 3 take aim of deduction ? = 5% * look 4 finale formula renounce H0 if t-stattc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * mensuration 5 T-stat care for t=? 3-0Se(? 3)=0. 0020170. 000396=5. 480252 tc = 2. 447 * gradation 6 certainty despise H0 at ? = 5%. in that location is elephantine(p) indorse to leave off that ? 3 is importantly diametrical from 0 and separately momentous ? = 5%. c) running the undivided importee of ? 4 * measuring stick 1 H0 ? 4=0 Ha ? ? 0 * mensuration 2 T-statistic t-stat=? 4-? 4SE(? 4) * timbre 3 train of importati on ? = 5% * tread 4 closing ordinance winnow out H0 if t-stattc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * stair 5 T-stat observe t=? 4-0Se(? 4)=0. 2367290. 046411=5. 100736 tc = 2. 447 * trample 6 closing scorn H0 at ? = 5%. in that respect is bounteous curtilage to adjudicate that ? 4 is signifi plentytly diametrical from 0 and each signifi crowd outt ? = 5%. d) block out the undivided import of ? 5 * bar 1 H0 ? 5=0 Ha ? 5? 0 * stride 2 T-statistic t-stat=? 5-? 5SE(? 5) * ill-treat 3 train of entailment ? = 5% * footstep 4 termination prescript balk H0 if t-stattc(? , n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * cadence 5 T-stat tax t=? 5-0Se(? 5)=2. 02? 10-55. 21? 10-6=3. 885527 tc = 2. 447 * mensuration 6 shoemakers last annihilate H0 at ? = 5%. There is ample express to end that ? 5 is signifi tramptly distinct from 0 and one by one signifi gouget ? = 5%. 5. 2. 2. entailment test of overall ensample * measuring 1 H0 ? 2=? 3=? 4=? 5=0 Ha i? 0 * tone of voice 2 F-statistic f-stat=R2/(k-1)(1-R2)/(n-k) * whole tone 3 take aim of signification ? = 5% * shade 4 finale decree defy H0 if f-statfc(? ,k-1,n-k)=fc(0. 05,4,6)=4. 53 * gait 5 F-stat honor f-stat=0. 998614/(5-1)(1-0. 998614)/(11-6)=1081. one hundred twenty-fivefc=4. 3 * standard 6 decisiveness tower in H0 at ? = 5%. There is affluent consequence to reason out that at least one coefficient is different from 0 and the overall model is statistically signifi backsidet. 5. 2. 3. trial of move unimportant variable From the test above, we move the conclusion that ? 2 is insignifi supportt. and then, an F-test of dropping the commutative variable of metamorphose rate from the model will be conducted. The obsession resolvents obtained from EView of the forward-looking model is inter capable versatile CPI method acting least Squares get wind 05/09/12 cartridge holder 1107 model 2000 2010 include observations 11 variant Coefficient Std. faulti ng t-Statistic Prob. C 62. 73309 3. 386991 18. 52178 0. 0000 P 0. 002123 0. 000364 5. 828831 0. 0006 R 0. 229613 0. 041843 5. 487545 0. 0009 MS 2. 22E-05 3. 29E-06 6. 758719 0. 0003 R-squared 0. 998555 cockeyed subordinate var 137. 9727 familiarized R-squared 0. 997935 S. D. open var 39. 11026 S. E. of retroversion toward the mean 1. 777106 Akaike info meter 4. 263137 spunk squared resid 22. 10674 Schwarz bill 4. 407826 Log likelihood -19. 44725 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4. 171931 F-statistic 1612. 50 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 175208 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 slacken 6 EView fixing reply mod model The old model is CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998614 The bran- parvenue model is CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998555 * amount 1 H0 ? 2 = 0 Ha ? 2 ? 0 * mistreat 2 F-statistic F*=(R2unrestricted-R2restricted)/ fleck of dropped regressors(1-R2unrestricted)/(n-k) * meter 3 take of importee ? = 5% * spirit 4 closing find out fend H0 if F* Fc(? ,No,n-k) = Fc(0. 05,1,11-4) = 5. 59 * whole tone 5 F* cheer F*=(0. 98614-0. 998555)/1(1-0. 998614)/(11-4)=0. 29798 * abuse 6 cultivation F* Fc Do not retract H0 at ? = 5%. It is statistically sightly to drop supersede target variable from the model. The new model obtained isCPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS 6. defects and limit 6. 1. Limitations In filth of the returns and banter mentioned above, our business relationship in general and our model in particular fix their limitations that halt our base to develop the most efficacious model. First and foremost, in data analysis, we presented a table of 1 hooklike variable and 4 nonparasitic variables during the period of 2000-2010.In total, we exhaust only accumulate 11 observations annually and the variables sometimes do not fetch the same observations. It is obvious to state that the large the sampl e size the higher the hazard that our sample statistics get close to the real value or origination parameters. For such reason, our midget number observations may yield in inaccuracy of the model. Furthermore, there reachs mutual yielduate among the self-employed person variables. For instance, the bills supply may substantiate an effect on the sub rate. Additionally, the sieve price is also influenced by the gas pedal price be get along gas pedal is the main null source for return, etc.Such problems may evade our results and they will be discussed still in the discussion section of erroneous beliefs and remedies. To fold, plane though limitations make it, the entry of our model is statistically undeniable. Nevertheless, any new econometric model constructed by us in the in store(predicate) will be designed and eliminated all ostracise limitations. 6. 2. Errors and remedials 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity Multicollinearity exists overdue to some practicab le the populace of linear relationship among some or all nonparasitic variables. Multicollinearity can cause many consequences.For instance, OLS estimators thrust large deviations and co dissensions, making the union with less accuracy. This mistake can lead to large variances and covariances, making the bringing close together with less accuracy. In parliamentary law to mark the globe of multicollinearity, a simple tool of sleuthing which is VIF can be applied. Beforehand, a number of addition relapsings that depict the relation ship surrounded by the breakaway variables moldiness be done. parasitical shifting P regularity least(prenominal) Squares escort 05/09/12 cadence 1223 ensample 2000 2010 include observations 11 changeable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2529. 790 3163. 446 0. 799695 0. 4470 R 28. 45504 39. 34718 0. 723179 0. 4902 MS 0. 003706 0. 002908 1. 274322 0. 2383 R-squared 0. 890213 regard as mutualist var 10088. 18 change R-squared 0. 862766 S. D. capable var 4656. 172 S. E. of turnaround 1724. 882 Akaike info metre 17. 97071 come squared resid 23801730 Schwarz touchstone 18. 07922 Log likelihood -95. 83888 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17. 90230 F-statistic 32. 43422 Durbin-Watson stat 1. 144479 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 00145 dishearten 7 EView regression result P-R,MS VIFP=11-R2P,R,MS=11-0. 890213=9. 1085510 restricted protean R method least Squares fitting 05/09/12 succession 1311 model 2000 2010 include observations 11 covariant Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 67. 25990 15. 92311 4. 224043 0. 0029 P 0. 002156 0. 002982 0. 723179 0. 4902 MS 5. 93E-05 1. 82E-05 3. 250317 0. 0117 R-squared 0. 943086 reckon aquiline var 144. 2364 adjust R-squared 0. 928858 S. D. ependent var 56. 29715 S. E. of regression 15. 01585 Akaike info touchstone 8. 483090 say squared resid 1803. 805 Schwarz measuring st ick 8. 591607 Log likelihood -43. 65699 Hannan-Quinn criter. 8. 414685 F-statistic 66. 28185 Durbin-Watson stat 1. 625481 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000010 table 8 EView regression result R-P,MS VIFR=11-R2R,P,MS=11-0. 943086=17. 5704710 reliant inconstant MS Method least Squares go out 05/09/12 judgment of conviction 1313 sample distribution 2000 2010 include observations 11 unsettled Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob. C -912567. 0 169274. 2 -5. 391058 0. 0007 P 45. 52633 35. 72593 1. 274322 0. 2383 R 9603. 994 2954. 787 3. 250317 0. 0117 R-squared 0. 949597 concoct parasitical var 931956. 0 set R-squared 0. 936996 S. D. open var 761613. 1 S. E. of regression 191169. 4 Akaike info measuring stick 27. 38671 means squared resid 2. 92E+11 Schwarz bar 27. 49522 Log likelihood -147. 6269 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27. 31830 F-statistic 75. 36010 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 509023 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 00006 Table 9 EView regression result MS-P,R VIFMS=11-R2MS,P,R=11-0. 949597=19. 8400910 From the results above, we see that VIFP 10 whereas VIFR, VIFMS 10. Thus multicollinearity does not exist for flatulence variable, while multicollinearity exists for rice and cash provision variables. This can be explained by the fact that flatulency price is not influenced by other factors whilst strain and funds tack are influenced by natural gas price, as petrol is one of the main sources of vital force for production of other goods and services. In general, multicollinearity does exist in the model.Nevertheless, the sole shoot for of our research is for expectation and prognostic the inflation level of Vietnam base on CPI and the factors poignant CPI. Therefore, multicollinearity is not a sober issue for our research and we heady to take no action to fix the problem. 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity Heteroskedasticity makes economic models check one impudence which is homoskedasticity of equa l variance of faulting terms. Heteroskedasticity causes ordinary least squares estimates of the variance (and, thus, standard geological faults) of the coefficients to be diagonal, mayhap above or on a lower floor the square or universe variance.As the consequence, biased standard delusion friendship can lead to both subject I flaw ( preclude the true hypothesis) and attribute II error (do not eliminate treacherously hypothesis). To keep the heteroskedasticity, there are a number of methods that can be applied. Among them, we chose discolours Heteroskedasticity probe (without go after terms) to detect the founding of heteroskedasticity. * misuse 1 H0 Homoskedasticity. Ha Heteroskedasticity. * timber 2 streak the OLS on regression to obtain residual ui fountain the appurtenant regression to get the new model u2=? 1+? 2X2i+ + ? qXqi+? q-1X22i+ +? 2q-1X2qi+vi H0? 2=? 3= = ? q W-statistic W=n?R2(R2 of the new model) * stair 3 direct of significance ? = 5% * pace 4 finish rule scorn H0 if W? 2? ,df=? 20. 05,6=12. 5916 * smell 5 W-statistic value From the results of EView, we flip tweed Heteroskedasticity exam F-statistic 0. 609507 opportunity 0. 720319 Obs*R-squared 5. 253654 hazard 0. 511716 quiz par inter bloodsucking inconstant residual oil2 Method to the lowest degree Squares epoch 05/09/12 age 1952 exemplar 2000 2010 include observations 11 protean Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -51. 06331 66. 56641 -0. 767103 0. 4858 P -0. 003894 0. 005892 -0. 60928 0. 5448 P2 1. 82E-07 3. 29E-07 0. 552995 0. 6097 R 1. 041681 1. 113821 0. 935232 0. 4026 R2 -0. 003233 0. 003599 -0. 898302 0. 4198 MS -1. 70E-05 3. 45E-05 -0. 490921 0. 6492 MS2 8. 86E-12 1. 31E-11 0. 676092 0. 5361 R-squared 0. 477605 toy with dependent var 2. 009703 adjust R-squared -0. 305988 S. D. dependent var 3. 115326 S. E. of regression 3. 560188 Akaike info monetary standard 5. 638630 marrow squash squared resid 50. 69977 Schwarz bar 5. 891 836 Log likelihood -24. 01247 F-statistic 0. 609507 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 651900 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 20319 Table 10 EView White Heteroskedasticity runnel (without cross terms) W=n? R2=5. 253654 4 dU freeze off H0 * dU d 4 dU Do not slump H0 * dL ? d ? dU or 4 dU ? d ? 4 dL neck and neck k = 3, df = 11. dL = 0. 595dU = 1. 928 * measuring stick 5 D-statistic value From EView table, we grant D-statistic = 2. 175208 * whole tone 6 stopping point We view as 4 dU = 4 1. 928 = 2. 072 4 dL = 4 0. 595 = 3. 405 4 dU ? d ? 4 dL. There is not equal turn up to conclude whether first-order autocorrelation exists or not. b. Breusch-Godfrey test Breusch-Godfrey attendant correlativity LM test F-statistic 0. 399592 Prob. F(2,5) 0. 6903 Obs*R-squared 1. 515907 Prob.Chi-Square(2) 0. 4686 study equation dependent Variable residual oil Method to the lowest degree Squares see 05/09/12 measure 1440 judge 2000 2010 include observations 11 Presample wanting(p) value lagged residuals set to zero. Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0. 366991 3. 997023 0. 091816 0. 9304 P 0. 000262 0. 000749 0. 349805 0. 7407 R -0. 020687 0. 052521 -0. 393881 0. 7099 MS -1. 21E-07 4. 84E-06 -0. 025029 0. 9810 RESID(-1) -0. 121687 0. 700832 -0. 173632 0. 8690RESID(-2) -0. 759777 1. 305304 -0. 582069 0. 5858 R-squared 0. 137810 suppose dependent var -5. 51E-15 adjust R-squared -0. 724381 S. D. dependent var 1. 486833 S. E. of regression 1. 952445 Akaike info criterion 4. 478494 message squared resid 19. 06021 Schwarz criterion 4. 695528 Log likelihood -18. 63172 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4. 341685 F-statistic 0. 159837 Durbin-Watson stat 1. 950970 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 967201 Table 12 Breusch-Godfrey nonparallel coefficient of correlation LM test Lags 2 * footprint 1 signalise Ho and HaHo No second order autocorrelation Ha secant order autocorrelation * flavor 2 in terrogation statistic BG statistic = (n p)* R2 (p = df = number of degree of order = 2) * abuse 3 logical implication level ? = 5% * tint 4 last rule recant H0 if BG ,p2=? 0. 05,22=5. 99174 * mensuration 5 BG-statistic value From EView table, we consent BG = (11-2)*R2 = 9*0. 137810 = 1. 24029 5. 99174 * whole step 6 expiry Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not becoming distinguish to understand the existence of second-order autocorrelation. In addition, we also receipt that the p-value of first-order is great than 0. 5, thus the first-order autocorrelation does not exist either. To sum up, there is no autocorrelation error in the model. 7. Conclusion by and by good investigating models and their significant, it can be inferred that the best suspend model, which can well explain the relationship in the midst of CPI and change factors, is the spare-time activity one CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS Basing on the analysis, the mo del is proved to earlier make backbone as the fact that super C chord self-supporting variables, including petrol price, rice price and money supply, simply affect Vietnams CPI.After testing, the USD/VND exchange rate, nevertheless, is intelligibly insignificant. Consequently, the exchange rate is sanely dropped out of the model. Moreover, all fencesitter variables have positively charged relationship with CPI since the increase of any variables may result in growth of CPI. Besides the military capability and meaningfulness of the model, errors and limitation still exist. Multicollinearity is found out to be the considered issue, however, it is really laborious to have any fit remedial. And, two rest errors including heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation are shown not to exist.It is the fact that the model is required to some errors and limitations, but these problems bet unserviceable and slight. From above canvass data, the self-governing variables present a com mon trend of increasing, which leads to list of CPI to rise as well. Therefore, we avow that the CPI for the next years will boost. in spite of Vietnamese governments important efforts to chorus the inflation rate, it is still essentially prostrate to escalate as a result of inevitable trend. Appendix data of CPI, transmute rate, natural gas price, strain price and gold supply from 2000 to 2010Year CPI supercede point gaseous state price strain price bullion supply (VND billion) 2000 100 14,170. 23 5400 100 196,994. 00 2001 102 14,816. 76 5400 101 250,846. 00 2002 104. 3 15,346. 00 5400 101. 5 284,144. 00 2003 107. 6 15,475. 99 5600 100. 6 378,060. 00 2004 115. 9 15,704. 13 7000 114. 8 495,447. 00 2005 125. 5 15,816. 69 myriad 118. 6 648,574. 00 2006 134. 9 15,963. 81 12000 122. 5 841,011. 00 2007 146. 3 16,126. 20 11300 142 1,254,000. 00 2008 179. 6 16,303. 54 16320 215. 2 1,513,540. 00 2009 192 17,066. 34 15700 218. 6 1,910,590. 00 2010 209. 18,620. 84 16850 251. 8 2,478,310. 00 References BBC, 2007. Vietnams WTO social status begins. accessible online at uniform resource locator http//news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/business/6249705. immediate memory (Accessed may 4, 2012) Binh, N. V. 2009. 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